Week 11 College Football Picks

An overall good week in Week 11.  A couple of upsets didn’t quite end up happening, but that’s the risk.

Don’t forget after checking out this week’s picks, to check out the 2012-13 Bowl Predictions.

Last Week:  20-6 (.769)

Overall:  225-53 (.809)

Ball State vs. #25 Toledo (This game is the reason these picks are coming Tuesday, as opposed to Wednesday or Thursday.)

#10 Florida State vs. Virginia Tech (Any other year, you would consider calling the upset.)

#15 Texas A&M vs. #1 Alabama (If Alabama is going to get upset in the regular season, this will be the week.)

#2 Kansas State vs. TCU (If Kansas State is going to get upset in the regular season, this will be the week.)

#3 Oregon vs. California

#4 Notre Dame vs. Boston College

#5 Georgia vs. Auburn

Louisiana-Lafayette vs. #6 Florida

#21 Mississippi State vs. #7 LSU

Arkansas vs. #8 South Carolina (If this Arkansas team has QB Tyler Wilson playing well, a poor South Carolina secondary might make this a closer game.)

#9 Louisville vs. Syracuse

#11 Oregon State vs. #14 Stanford

Baylor vs. #12 Oklahoma

Maryland vs. #13 Clemson (It’s hard to think of an upset here when you are out of quarterbacks.)

Penn State vs. #16 Nebraska (Nebraska really needs this one to show they are legitimate, not just the class of the Big Ten because of Penn State and Ohio State having postseason bans.)

Iowa State vs. #17 Texas

#18 UCLA vs. Washington State

Arizona State vs. #19 USC

#20 Louisiana Tech vs. Texas State

Kansas vs. #22 Texas Tech

Army vs. #23 Rutgers

#24 Northwestern vs. Michigan

Miami (FL) vs. Virginia

Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina

Wake Forest vs. North Carolina State

Missouri vs. Tennessee

Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss

Boise State 2010 Schedule: Tough Enough?

As all college football fans will tell you, the Boise State Broncos have been evolving into a powerhouse over the past few seasons.

Boise State had burst onto the scene with their win for the ages over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.  They finished their 2006 regular season with an undefeated 12-0 record.

Since the 2006 season, Boise State has a record of 49 wins and only four losses, with only one of those losses coming to a conference opponent (Hawaii, 2007).  Their bowl record over these four seasons is 2-2, with wins over Oklahoma and Texas Christian and losses to East Carolina and Texas Christian.

While some fans say the record speaks for itself, many other fans, including myself have a problem with their overall strength of schedule.  In the past four seasons, the Broncos have scheduled four BCS conference opponents (Oregon State in 2006, Washington in 2007, Oregon in 2008 and 2009).

Of their 47 regular season wins over the past four seasons, 43 of them came over opponents in non-BCS conference, including 35 wins over conference opponents.  Also, four of those wins were over FBS teams.  Is this schedule strong enough to warrant a berth to a BCS game?

It seems like Boise State has heard the ridicule and is taking an extra step to ensure the fans will get what they want.

To open the 2010 season, Boise State will travel FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland to face perennial ACC powerhouse Virginia Tech.  This contest with a national power on a neutral site clearly upgrades their schedule significantly.

Boise State will host Pac-10 contender Oregon State on September 25^th.  This marks the first year of Boise State’s recent dominance in which they have scheduled two BCS opponents in the same season.

The other two non-conference opponents the Broncos have scheduled are a home game against Toledo and a game at Wyoming.  While the game with Toledo is not a “schedule-changer,” Wyoming is a much improved football and will pose a challenge for Boise State.

The conference home schedule for the Broncos will have them hosting Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii and Utah State.  While Fresno State has improved under Pat Hill, their best player, running back Ryan Mathews has moved on to the NFL.  Louisiana Tech, who just lost former head coach Derek Dooley, and Utah State should serve as pushovers for Boise State.  Hawaii is always a coin toss.  Their system could give them a big win, or their lack of defense could cost them the game.  Bottom line, Boise State should win these four games.

The conference road schedule is a little more daunting however.   The Broncos have to travel to San Jose State, New Mexico State, rival Idaho and top 25-caliber Nevada.  Boise State and Idaho have a heated rivalry and Idaho is a much improved team.  Nevada finished last season as the only team in Division-IA football history to have three players with over 1000 rushing yards in a season.  Two of those players, quarterback Colin Kaepernick and running back Vai Taua will be returning for their senior seasons.

Boise State has improved their schedule dramatically by adding Oregon State at home and Virginia Tech, who they will play at a neutral site in Landover, Maryland.  Also, the improvement of other WAC teams, Nevada, Idaho and Fresno State will help there strength of schedule.

While this schedule is still not as tough as those played by BCS conference teams, it is a gigantic step in the right direction.  I would still like to see a third BCS team, but we cannot ask for too much.  Also note, Boise State played in thirteen games last season and could still add one more to this schedule.

But is this still tough enough?  Is this schedule worth a BCS Game?  I would say yes, but barely.  I would still like to see a third BCS team, but we cannot ask for too much.  Finishing this season undefeated would be much more impressive than past years and would warrant another Fiesta Bowl.

Is it National Championship worthy?  To this, I say no.  Boise State is clearly head and shoulders above every other team in their conference, and playing only two BCS conference teams, while BCS teams play at lease seven others each season, is not enough.  An easier path should never be rewarded the same as the more difficult path.

Of course this discussion always leads to the question I ask every time Boise State’s schedule is brought up… When will the Pac-10 just invite them to join?  That would solve all of these problems.