2012-13 Bowl Game Picks

In past years, I have compared my picks to that of a coin flip.  This year, the coin won’t continue, but the picks will.

Overall, it was a great season picking games, and hopefully the bowl picks keep up the great work.

Last Week:  1-0  (1.000) [Navy beat Army]

Overall:  302-77 (.797)

Nevada vs. Arizona  (First bowl game of the year, should actually be a close one.)

Toledo vs. Utah State

BYU vs. San Diego State  (Essentially a home game for San Diego State.)

Central Florida vs. Ball State  (Essentially a home game for Central Florida.)

Louisiana-Lafayette vs. East Carolina  (Essentially a home game for Louisiana-Lafayette.)

Boise State vs. Washington

Southern Methodist vs. Fresno State  (June Jones gets a win in Hawaii, his old stomping grounds.)

Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky

Bowling Green vs. San Jose State

Duke vs. Cincinnati  (An upset special.)

UCLA vs. Baylor  (Essentially a home game for UCLA.)

Ohio vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers  (Virginia Tech tries to salvage an otherwise disappointing season.)

Texas Tech vs. Minnesota  (Essentially a home game for Texas Tech.)

Air Force vs. Rice

Syracuse vs. West Virginia  (Geno Smith has a great game in his final game.)

Navy vs. Arizona State

Oregon State vs. Texas  (Essentially a home game for Texas.)

TCU vs. Michigan State

North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt  (North Carolina State has been disappointing after the Florida State win.)

Georgia Tech vs. Southern California

Tulsa vs. Iowa State

Clemson vs. LSU  (Defense should win this game.)

Northwestern vs. Mississippi State  (Northwestern will lead for 3 1/2 quarters, only to lose late.)

Purdue vs. Oklahoma State

Michigan vs. South Carolina

Georgia vs. Nebraska

Wisconsin vs. Stanford  (Defense wins this game.)

Florida State vs. Northern Illinois  (Congratulations to Northern Illinois for making it to a BCS game, that will be about when the celebration ends.)

Florida vs. Louisville

Oregon vs. Kansas State  (The only other good BCS game match-up.)

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma

Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi

Kent State vs. Arkansas State

Notre Dame vs. Alabama  (Game has the potential to be one of the greatest in college football history.  Alabama just has a little more offense than the Fighting Irish.)

Keep track of all of the bowl game results here.

Rapid Fire Picks for November 5th

College Football:

Last Week: 16-8
Overall: 180-51

Top 25, based on BCS Standings:
#2 Alabama over #1 LSU
#3 Oklahoma State over #14 Kansas State
#4 Stanford over Oregon State
#5 Boise State over UNLV
#6 Oklahoma over Texas A&M
#9 South Carolina over #7 Arkansas…I’m sticking with the pick from the beginning of the year, SC 49-17
#8 Oregon over Washington…could be a trap game for the Ducks
#10 Nebraska over Northwestern
#13 Houston over UAB
#15 Michigan over Iowa
#17 Michigan State over Minnesota
#18 Georgia over New Mexico State
#19 Arizona State over UCLA
#20 Wisconsin over Purdue
#21 Texas over Texas Tech
#24 West Virginia over Louisville
#25 Southern Miss over East Carolina

SEC:
Florida over Vanderbilt…close
Ole Miss over Kentucky…first to score might win this game
Tennessee over Middle Tennessee State
Mississippi State over Tennessee-Martin

ACC:
Virginia over Maryland
North Carolina over North Carolina State
Miami (FL) over Duke
Notre Dame over Wake Forest

Other Games:
SMU over Tulane
Troy over Navy
Air Force over Army

NFL

Last Week: 8-5
Overall: 77-38

Bills over Jets
Cowboys over Seahawks
Falcons over Colts
Chiefs over Dolphins
Saints over Buccaneers
49ers over Redskins
Texans over Browns
Raiders over Broncos
Patriots over Giants
Rams over Cardinals
Packers over Chargers
Steelers over Ravens
Bears over Eagles

Vintage Spurrier Shines in Gamecocks Beat-down of Kentucky

Connor Shaw threw for over 300 yards, and South Carolina Head Coach Steve Spurrier displayed some of his old ‘Fun ‘n Gun’ offense from Florida, as the Gamecocks (5-1 overall, 3-1 in the SEC) defeated the Kentucky Wildcats (2-4, 0-3) 54-3 Saturday at Williams-Brice Stadium.

Gamecocks’ running back Marcus Lattimore added 102 yards rushing, and the defense held Kentucky to just 96 yards and six first downs.

“It was a good win for us.  The defense was outstanding.” said Spurrier.  “We had a balanced attack.  We got over 600 yards.  We haven’t done it much.”

The Gamecocks totaled 639 total yards of offense against the Wildcats in Shaw’s first start at quarterback, replacing the ineffective Stephen Garcia.

Shaw also believed his preparation for this game, as opposed to his start against East Carolina, made the difference.

“In Charlotte I don’t think I was as prepared as I was (today).  They let me know early in the week (this time), so I just had a good mindset coming into it,” said Shaw.  “My teammates were really helpful and the o-line came to me and said we have your back.”

While confidence may be on the back of South Carolina, the Wildcats lost any they might have had entering this game.

Kentucky only managed 96 yards of total offense, and turned the ball over six times.

“Ugly is how you can describe it.  Especially offensively, (we) had a chance to make a play early in the first half, wide open guy but threw it inside and [they] made an interception,” said Kentucky Head Coach Joker Phillips.  “[We have] an offense that can’t make plays, can’t stay on the field, an offense that turns the ball over six times, numerous times on first down.”

Wildcats’ quarterbacks Morgan Newton and Maxwell Smith combines to complete only 4 of 26 passes attempted, throwing four interceptions, for only 17 yards.

Phillips said that his team will use the off-week to figure what will work on offense.  They face Jacksonville State on October 22nd.

Meanwhile, the Gamecocks will take its new starting quarterback and much needed confidence to face Mississippi State in Starkville.

However, South Carolina’s Assistant Head Coach Ellis Johnson summarizes what this game, and last week’s loss against Auburn means for this Gamecocks team.

“One game doesn’t make a season, and one season doesn’t make a program,” said Johnson.  “We are going to continue to work and improve.”

Work and improve is definitely something this team will need, as three consecutive road games will define its 2011 season.

2011 South Carolina Gamecocks’ Football Predictions

UPDATE (10/24):  Game scores or time/television included

With one week to go before the Gamecocks open their 2011 season in Charlotte against the East Carolina Pirates, it is time for my yearly predictions for every game this season.

The Gamecocks return a veteran team, as well as a team that has the experience of playing in the SEC Championship game against Auburn last season.  It is a team that has spent the offseason dealing once again with the off-the-field problems of QB Stephen Garcia.

However, Steve Spurrier hopes to ride on the shoulders of Heisman Award candidate RB Marcus Lattimore and potential first-overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft WR Alshon Jeffery.

Here is the 2011 South Carolina season in “preview:”

September 3rd, East Carolina Pirates vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C.; SC 56, ECU 37)

The Gamecocks open the season with a neural site game against the East Carolina Pirates.  In the past, the Pirates have been a team that is able to play great games against top-ranked opponents.

However, the Gamecocks open the season wanting to prove they are the 12th ranked team in college football, and a big win against the Pirates would go a long way in proving that the Gamecocks are ready to shine.

East Carolina might show early that they can hang with the Gamecocks, but the running attack led by Lattimore will be too much.

Gamecocks 42, Pirates 14

September 10th – South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Georgia Bulldogs (SC 45, UGA 42)

This game will be an early test again, but more to see if the Gamecocks are legitimate within the SEC.

Georgia returns star QB Aaron Murray, but the Bulldogs lost his biggest target, WR A.J. Green to the NFL.

This is a make or break season for Mark Richt, whose teams have struggles the last few seasons in the SEC, especially the Matthew Stafford days.

This will be a close game, but the Gamecocks are just a little too much for the Bulldogs.  Don’t be surprised if this game is won on special teams.

Gamecocks 27, Bulldogs 24

September 17th – Navy Midshipmen vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (SC 24, Navy 21)

The Gamecocks have struggled in past years defending the option, and the biggest test will be the Midshipmen.

Gamecock fans will remember the down-to-the-wire struggles against the Wofford Terriers (a FCS school), a team that runs the offense.

The best way for the Gamecocks to win wil be to give Navy a taste of its own medicine, and counter with Lattimore, trying to control the clock to limit Navy’s opportunities on offense.

This will be a trap game for the Gamecocks, but they should earn the victory in the first home game of the season.

Gamecocks 21, Midshipmen 17

September 24th – Vanderbilt Commodores vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (SC 21, VANDY 3)

For a team (Vanderbilt) that struggles to win one game each season, it is amazing how much the Gamecocks struggle against the Commodores.

However, this is the type of game that the Gamecocks need to win in blowout fashion, to get back-up QB Connor Shaw some much needed experience.

South Carolina will be the better team in this game, but the Gamecocks’ issue of playing down to some opponents will rear its ugly head once again.

Gamecocks 17, Commodores 10

October 1st – Auburn Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (Auburn 16, SC 13)

For some reason, Gamecock fans hold a grudge against the Tigers, but the Tigers were the better team last season.

Fans also believe that Auburn is going to be a terrible team, one year after their amazing national championship run.

Make no question about it, however, Auburn is not the same team they were one season ago, but they are not terrible.

They do return RB Michael Dyer, who will be the focal point of the offense.

The home-field advantage will be the difference in this game, but it will be a hard-nosed matchup between the two teams who battled for the SEC Championship.

Gamecocks 31, Tigers 27

October 8th – Kentucky Wildcats vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (SC 54, UK 3)

Much like Vanderbilt, South Carolina has a hard time finding a way to defeat Kentucky.

This was not more evident when last year, an injury to Lattimore stalled the Gamecocks’ offense while Randall Cobb led the Wildcats on a comeback win.

This season, the battle between these two teams will not change, even though South Carolina is the significantly better team.

The difference will be a healthy Lattimore, who will help to put the game away in the fourth quarter.

Gamecocks 28, Wildcats 14

October 15th – South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (SC 14, MSST 12)

This easily could be the game of the season in the SEC.  Both of these teams are equal.

Each team has is up-and-coming, with a sometimes inconsistent quarterback.  For the Gamecocks, Garcia, and for the Bulldogs, Chris Relf.

Bulldogs’ head coach Dan Mullen made this team competitve last season, and could make a run like Auburn did last season.

The difference in this game will be that it is played in Starkville, Mississippi.  This will be the game that ends the Gamecocks’ bid at an undefeated season.

Bulldogs 28, Gamecocks 24

October 29th – South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Tennessee Volunteers (7:15 p.m., ESPN2)

The second half of last year’s game between these two teams helped the Vols find its quarterback in Tyler Bray, replacing Matt Simms.

Bray helped to lead Tennessee to a bowl game in head coach Derek Dooley’s first season in Knoxville.

The Gamecocks will also try to get back to its winning ways, after losing its first (and likely only) game in 2011.

Tennessee will be more competitive in this year’s battle, and this has the potential to be a trap game for the Gamecocks, if the team begins to look ahead to Arkansas and Florida.

However, the Gamecocks will try to avenge the fumbling problems of the game two years ago in Knoxville.  The defense will make the difference for South Carolina.

Gamecocks 23, Volunteers 16

November 5th – South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (7:15 p.m., ESPN)

Last season, the Gamecocks were caught looking ahead to a game in Florida to try and win the SEC East.

A mediocre pass defense could not stop QB Ryan Mallett, as the Razorbacks throttled the Gamecocks 41-20.

Mallett does not return for the Razorbacks, and a severe injury to RB Knile Davis will end up making for a long season in Fayetteville.

The Gamecocks will get revenge on the Razorbacks, as Arkansas struggles to find an offensive identity without Davis.

Gamecocks 49, Razorbacks 17

November 12th – Florida Gators vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (12:00 p.m., CBS or 3:30 p.m., CBS or 6:00 p.m., ESPN2 or 7:45 p.m., ESPN)

Unlike last season, this game does not appear to have the postseason implications, a win meant advancing to the SEC Championship Game.

The Gators are in a rebuilding mode, as Will Muschamp takes over following Urban Meyer’s resignation/retirement/sabbatical.

Even though the Gators return key players such as RB/WR Chris Rainey, TE/WR/QB Trey Burton, and QB John Brantley, it will still struggle to adjust.

This might be a little closer than last year’s, but South Carolina is still the better team and should be able to pull away late.

Gamecocks 28, Gators 17

November 19th – The Citadel Bulldogs vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (12:00 p.m., Pay-Per-View)

Much like last year, the ‘orange crush’ schedule is broken up by a lesser opponent.  This year, it is the task of The Citadel to play the role of the Troy Trojans.

This will be an opportunity for Spurrier to test out some plays that might come into play as the Gamecocks look towards the rivalry game against Clemson and the SEC Championship Game.

This should be an easy victory, but Gamecock fans know not to take these games for granted.

Gamecocks 63, Bulldogs 9

November 26th – Clemson Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (TBA)

For many Gamecock fans, this is the only game that matters on the schedule every single year.

At this point for the Tigers, they will have exceeded expectations, or there could be an interim coach for Dabo Swinney.

However, it is impossible to overlook the running ability of Andre Ellington and an always stout defense.  The development of Tajh Boyd at quarterback will make the difference.

This game always seems to turn on one play.  Once again, that play will go in favor of the Gamecocks.

Gamecocks 34, Tigers 21

There you have it, an 11-1 overall record in 2011, with a 7-1 record in the SEC.

The only hiccup for the Gamecocks will come against Mississippi State, as the Bulldogs have the edge as the game will be played in Starkville.

However, 11-1 will have the Gamecocks in the top 10 in the polls, and positioned back in the SEC Championship game.

It is important to caution that the key to the Gamecocks will be the first three games.  If they overlook the two non-conference games against East Carolina and Navy, the Gamecocks could easily start the season 0-3.

That would leave the Gamecock faithful shaking their heads wondering how and why.

As games are added (i.e. SEC Championship Game and a bowl game), the predictions will follow.

Don’t Let Potential Influence Garcia Decision

As everyone has been able to swallow the news of South Carolina Gamecocks QB Stephen Garcia’s indefinite suspension, the new question is what happens next?

Many Gamecock fans are tired of the fifth-year senior’s actions while others believe he should be given another chance.  Some still refuse to believe that Garcia might have a problem or accept that Garcia never lived up to his potential.

However, some people believe that Garcia should be reinstated in time for the 2011 season, simply because the team won’t be as successful otherwise.

For life-long Gamecock fans, this season potentially could be the program’s best, attempting to defend its SEC East title from a year ago.  Many people believe that no Garcia means no title defense opportunity.

If you reinstate Garcia just to ensure that this football team lives up to its 2011 predictions, it would be time to take a strong look at South Carolina’s priorities.

This would just further a divide that demonstrates that players are put on different levels.  If you are a key contributor, you can get away with things five times.  If you barely are a special teams player, you might get one shot.

Garcia must be treated like he is any other player.  In addition, it is important that Athletics Director Eric Hyman, Head Coach Steve Spurrier, and South Carolina President Harris Pastides work together to create a reinstatement program that gets Garcia the help he needs, while not bringing any shame to South Carolina any more.

I ultimately believe Garcia will be reinstated.  However, there must be strict guidelines that include counseling sessions, anger management, and leadership training.  Regardless of whether Garcia has an alcohol problem or not, he needs help.

There also is one final part to this reinstatement plan, if he brings any shame to the University of South Carolina in any way, it brings an immediate dismissal from the football team with no option to return.

The final move that Spurrier must do is name some other quarterback the starter.  Sophomore Connor Shaw would appear to be the likely candidate.  In order to regain his starting job, Garcia must prove like anyone else that he deserves it.  Even then, starting someone else, at the very least in the opener against East Carolina, would be a smart move.

No one wanted to see Garcia end his career at South Carolina the same way he began: suspended.  However, South Carolina has shown everyone that Garcia is not just anybody else, and for some reason deserves five to six chances.  Therefore, why should we expect how they handle him to change.

If South Carolina were to reinstate Garcia, just make sure it is for the right reason, not just because you fear disappointing fans and prognosticators in the fall.

By the way, isn’t this starting to sound a lot like the Weslye Saunders situation from last year?

Early 2011 Gamecocks Schedule Preview

Those who know me best know that I can’t stand talking about college football after the National Championship game.  However, with the release of the South Carolina Gamecocks’ 2011 football schedule, it seems warranted.

On paper, some might say that the Gamecocks have one of the easier schedules that they have had in recent memory.  Look at it a little closer, and it is clear the road to return to the SEC Championship Game is not as easy.

The 2011 schedule for the Gamecocks is broken down into different segments.  The Gamecocks have stretches of travelling or playing at Williams-Brice Stadium.

South Carolina starts the season on the road its first two weeks.  A non-conference game in Charlotte against East Carolina will not be an easy season-opener, compared to previous seasons.  While the Pirates do not have the best defense, a win over the Gamecocks would be their equivalent of winning a national title.

The second week has the Gamecocks playing in their first conference game, travelling to Athens, Georgia to take on the Bulldogs.  Last season was an easy win, this season it will be a little tougher.  Georgia QB Aaron Murray has much more confidence after a rough game last year against South Carolina.

The Gamecocks will then start a stretch of four consecutive home games.  The first is a tough non-conference game against Navy.  Gamecocks fans do not have to be reminded of the close wins against teams who run the option, like the Midshipmen.

This is followed up by three conference games.  Vanderbilt is under another new head coach, and should be an easy game for South Carolina.

Next up is Auburn.  Auburn is losing a lot of key players from its 2011 National Championship team.  It will be interesting to see what Auburn will look like, and if Gene Chizik will bring a competitive team to the table.

The fourth home game in this stretch will be against Kentucky.  Last season, Kentucky came back in the 4th quarter to defeat a then 10th-ranked Gamecock team.  The Gamecocks will try to avenge last season’s loss, but the Wildcats always bring a tough fight.

The next three games will be the tests for the Gamecocks, which will see them travel to Starkville, Knoxville, and Fayetteville in a four-week stretch.  All three of these teams are going to be early season favorites in their respected divisions, and could be the difference between a great season and a good season for South Carolina.

Finally, the Gamecocks will end with three home games.  Florida will come in with a new coach, Will Muschamp, and an adjustment period for the Gators will be expected.

The schedule once again lobs South Carolina a curveball when The Citadel goes to Williams-Brice Stadium.  The last time South Carolina played The Citadel, they lost.

The season wraps up the same way it has for many years, with its annual game against Clemson.  Clemson will be trying to play for Dabo Swinney’s job, if he is still there.

On paper, it looks easy.  However, travel will prove the difference for South Carolina this season.  Inability to win on the road could prove detrimental to the Gamecocks attempt to return to Atlanta.

We will go much more in-depth as the 2011 season approaches as to who will win, and if the Gamecocks can return to Atlanta.

GAMECOCKS 2011 SCHEDULE

September 3rd – vs. East Carolina (game played in Charlotte)

September 10th – at Georgia

September 17th – vs. Navy

September 24th – vs. Vanderbilt

October 1st – vs. Auburn

October 8th – vs. Kentucky

October 15th – at Mississippi State

October 29th – at Tennessee

November 5th – at Arkansas

November 12th – vs. Florida

November 19th – vs. The Citadel

November 26th – vs. Clemson

Section 26 Sports Final Mock Draft

So here it is folks.  This is the final NFL mock draft of the year.  This mock draft is full of interesting draft picks that you may not see anywhere else.

And keep in mind I don’t do trades in my mocks.  They get way too complicated and are impossible to predict.   I could easily see some teams, especially Detroit trading down, and some others, especially Oakland or Cleveland trading up at some point.

Round One
1. St Louis – Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma – They obviously need a franchise QB and Bradford is tops in the draft class.
2. Detroit – Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska – I could easily see a trade down here. Detroit has holes to fill as positions with depth in the draft (RB, OT, DT). However, because I don’t do trades, they take Suh.
3. Tampa Bay – Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma – Defensive line help is the biggest need for Tampa and they get an elite DT.
4. Washington – Russell Okung OT Oklahoma St – Chris Samuels retired and Washington got their QB in McNabb. Step 2 is the franchise LT, Okung.
5. Kansas City – Trent Williams OT Oklahoma – Kansas City could go in quite a few directions here, but if they’re smart they’ll go with the offensive line. Branden Albert faded quickly last season and they need someone to fill in and protect Cassel.
6. Seattle – Bryan Bulaga OT Iowa – With Seattle’s two first round picks, they will try to bolster the trenches. It seems sure one of the top two DE’s should drop to them later so they take Bulaga here.
7. Cleveland – Eric Berry FS Tennessee – It is amazing Berry fell this far and Cleveland should be thrilled. They fill a need with one of the top players in the draft. Berry will also help in the return game which would assist Cribbs moving to WR permanently.
8. Oakland – Bruce Campbell OT Maryland – This is a HUGE reach. Campbell is not a top player, but he’s very athletic for a tackle and, well, this is Al Davis after all.
9. Buffalo – Anthony Davis OT Rutgers – Buffalo has one of the worst offensive lines in the league so they desperately need to address it. With a line that bad, it doesn’t matter who is at QB. Anthony Davis is a bull when run blocking and Buffalo will have to rely on their run game, as they have no pass game. This seems a natural pick.
10. Jacksonville – Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech – Morgan is the best pass rushing DE in the draft and he will go to the worst pass rushing team in the NFL, Jacksonville. Jacksonville did sign Aaron Kampman, but that won’t be enough. This will give youth and fire to the weak defensive line.
11. Denver (from Chicago) – Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma St – As expected, Brandon Marshall is gone. We also found out that Tony Scheffler is going to Detroit. Eddie Royal is a good WR, but not a number one option. They need an elite receiver and Bryant is the best in the class.
12. Miami – Dan Williams DT Tennessee – Miami has a few needs but nose tackle is a glaring one. However, if they do trade Ronnie Brown, CJ Spiller could jump up to this pick for Miami.
13. San Francisco – Joe Haden CB Florida – Haden does not fill their strongest needs, offensive line and quarterback, but he’s the best player available and the 49ers have two first round picks. He’s worth the pick here as a top notch player.
14. Seattle (from Denver) – Jason Pierre-Paul DE S Florida – As stated before, Seattle has to start from the inside out with the trenches. It’s time for the defensive line and Jason Pierre-Paul is the pick. He can play a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 rush LB. Here he’ll play at DE and rush the passer, which is his specialty.
15. NY Giants – Rolando McClain ILB Alabama – Antonio Pierce was a staple on the Giants defense, but his neck injuries led to his release. The Giants need to retool and the best place to start is at MLB. However, if they trade Osi Umenyiora they could draft a DE here, possible Carlos Dunlap.
16. Tennessee – Kyle Wilson CB Boise St – The could go defensive line, but I really think they need to go with a CB here. Wilson is a physical back and fits well with Tennessee’s philosophy.
17. San Francisco (from Carolina) – Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame – Some say Clausen would never fall this far, but I really don’t like his future. He has an attitude issue and a slow deliver at times. However, the 49ers need a QB and Clausen has potential.
18. Pittsburgh – Devin McCourty CB Rutgers – The current CB’s on the Steelers’ roster are weak and can’t get it done. McCourty is an underrated CB that will fit well with the Steelers’ defense.
19. Atlanta – Carlos Dunlap DE Florida – Jamaal Anderson is a bust, we all know that now. It’s time to get a young pass rusher to play opposite John Abraham. Dunlap is a big pass rusher with the size and speed to start immediately. He does however have motivation problems at times.
20. Houston – Earl Thomas FS Texas – Houston will need to fill a big need at both safety positions as well as replace CB Dunta Robinson. Here they will go with Thomas who will fall further than his talent level represents. The bottom line is that this is a steal for Houston.
21. Cincinnati – Taylor Mays SS USC – Simply put, Cincinnati needs safety help and they love the USC products. Mays will fit in very well.
22. New England – Sergio Kindle OLB Texas – The Patriots need to fill a pass rushing void and Kindle would work well as a top-level 3-4 pass rusher.
23. Green Bay – CJ Spiller RB Clemson – This is the surprise pick of the draft. Green Bay doesn’t have too strong of a need at RB and Spiller may not fall this far. However, I see him dropping for various reasons, including his horribly low Wonderlic score. Green Bay will fill two secondary needs, backup RB and return specialist.
24. Philadelphia – Kareem Jackson CB Alabama – With Sheldon Brown gone, the Eagles will need a CB opposite Asante Samuel. Jackson is a great talent and will fit very well with the fast, athletic ideals of the Eagles defense.
25. Baltimore – Jermaine Gresham TE Oklahoma – Todd Heap has been invisible for Baltimore lately. They need another pass catcher for Flacco. They picked up Boldin and re-signed Derrick Mason. Here they will get their much needed TE.
26. Arizona – Brandon Graham DE Michigan – Graham is an underrated pass rusher. He will be one of the better 3-4 rush LB’s in this year’s draft. Arizona needs a pass rush. The signing of Joey Porter helps, but he’s already in trouble. They need youth at the position.
27. Dallas – Mike Iupati OG Idaho – Flozell Adams is gone from the offensive line and Dallas was relatively weak at guard last season. Iupati is the next Steve Hutchinson. Dallas gets a great one here.
28. San Diego – Ryan Mathews RB Fresno St – Mathews is the most complete and NFL-ready RB in this draft. San Diego needs to replace Tomlinson and Mathews is the best guy to get it done.
29. NY Jets – Jerry Hughes OLB TCU – Pass rush is a strong need for the Jets, along with FS. Here they get another one of those top-level 3-4 OLB’s. Hughes will come in ready to get some sacks. Even if they do sign Jason Taylor, Hughes is still the pick here.
30. Minnesota – Patrick Robinson CB Florida St – Injuries at CB hurt the Vikings late last year. Here they get Robinson, a great cover CB who can come in ready to start on a powerful Vikings defense.
31. Indianapolis – Brian Price DT UCLA – The Colts need to get depth and competition on their lines and Brian Price is a good start. He’ll compete from day one.
32. New Orleans – Sean Witherspoon LB Missouri – Witherspoon would have gone sooner if the Steelers had not signed Larry Foote or the Eagles had not traded for Ernie Sims. However, here we are. The Saints get a much needed defensive play-maker with the swagger to fit right in with New Orleans.

Round Two
1. St Louis – Everson Griffen DE USC – The Rams need more pass rush help and if they don’t trade for Osi Umenyiora, Griffen is a great pick here.
2. Detroit – Jahvid Best RB California – If the Lions trade for a RB, expect Penn St LB Novorro Bowman to be the pick here. However, they need more stability at RB and Best is a big play threat and elite return man.
3. Tampa Bay – Arrelious Benn WR Illinois – With Antonio Bryant in Cincinnati, Josh Freeman needs something resembling an offensive weapon. Benn is a good start.
4. Kansas City – Terrence Cody DT Alabama – Scott Pioli wants his “Vince Wilfork” and that’s what Cody is. He eats space at NT which is what the Chiefs need.
5. Philadelphia (From Washington) – Maurkice Poucey OL Florida – Interior offensive line is a need for Philadelphia. Pouncey falls a little far and the Eagles get a steal here.
6. Cleveland – Colt McCoy QB Texas – This is a little bit of a reach, but McCoy will fit with Cleveland well and could adapt into a very efficient QB.
7. Oakland – Linval Joseph DT E Carolina – This is another reach, but Joseph has the measurables to be an elite NT in the NFL in time. Joseph is 6’4″ 328 pounds, had 39 reps on the bench press and ran his 40-yard dash in less than 5.00.
8. San Diego – Cam Thomas DT N Carolina – Another NT off the board. Jamal Williams is in Denver so the Chargers need to replace him very quickly.
9. Buffalo – Ricky Sapp OLB Clemson – Buffalo still needs a lot and a pass rushing OLB in their new 3-4 defense is much needed.
10. Tampa Bay (From Chicago) – Donovan Warren CB Michigan – Aside from Aqib Talib, there is no Buccaneer CB with a future.
11. Denver (from Miami) – Jared Odrick DT Penn St – Odrick will be a great 3-4 DE and will fit in nicely next to newly acquired NT Jamal Williams.
12. New England (From Jacksonville) – Lamar Houston DT Texas – The same assessment from Odrick goes for Houston. The Patriots need to get younger up front and Houston will fit in nicely.
13. Denver – Vladmir Ducasse OG UMass – Denver is filling many needs in this draft and interior offensive line is just another one. Ducasse is underrated because he comes form UMass.
14. NY Giants – Geno Atkins DT Georgia – With Fred Robbins gone to the Rams, the Giants need a new DT quickly. Atkins will come in ready to make an impact. However, he is one of those players that could also easily slip to the third round. Luckily for him, DT is a league-wide need this year.
15. Carolina – Mardy Gilyard WR Cincinnati – Steve Smith wanted more speed at WR. Gilyard provides that, as well as return skills.
16. New England (From Tennessee) – Jonathan Dwyer RB Georgia Tech – It is time for Moroney to go away and Dwyer would be ready to play right away for the Patriots.
17. San Francisco – Charles Brown OT USC – The 49ers got their QB and an elite CB prospect. Here they get a big, smart tackle with great footwork.
18. Houston – Ben Tate RB Auburn – Houston needs RB depth and Tate is very underrated. He has a fair blend of speed and power. He will fit nicely with the Texans.
19. Kansas City (From Atlanta) – Kao Misi OLB Utah – Kansas City has their linemen and now need a good pass rusher. Misi is an underrated prospect that will fit in as a 3-4 OLB.
20. Pittsburgh – Demaryius Thomas WR Georgia Tech – Thomas doesn’t run the best routes, but he’s got the physical tools most WR’s dream about. With Holmes traded to the Jets and Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El aging, the Steelers need a young possession receiver.
21. New England – Damien Williams WR USC – The WR corps in New England is aging. Luckily the Patriots have four picks in the first two rounds and can afford to use one on a WR. Williams has soft hands and runs smooth routes, exactly what you need in the Patriots’ offense.
22. Cincinnati – Aaron Hernandez TE Florida – The Bengals have gotten their WR’s and now need a pass-catching TE. Hernandez isn’t much for blocking but he’s an elite receiving threat at TE.
23. Philadelphia – Nate Allen FS S Florida – The Eagles need to upgrade at the safety position, Allen is a great talent.
24. Green Bay – Chris Cook DB Virginia – Cook can play both CB and FS, both of which are aging positions for the Packers.
25. Baltimore – Golden Tate WR Notre Dame – Baltimore is making an offensive overhaul early in the draft. Tate will be an amazing slot receiver inside of Boldin and Mason and his speed will match perfectly with Flacco’s strong arm.
26. Arizona – Kyle Galloway OT Iowa – Arizona needs depth and competition at LT and Galloway could come in ready to compete.
27. Dallas – Jordan Shipley WR Texas – This isn’t an obvious need for Dallas, but Shipley is a Texas man and a great return man. Patrick Crayton needs to stop returning punts. Shipley will be the new and improved Patrick Crayton.
28. Seattle – Dexter McCluster RB Mississippi – While not a typical NFL RB, McCluster does provide a firm change of pace for Seattle’s offense as well as versatility to play in the slot, in the Wildcat and in the return game.
29. NY Jets – Morgan Burnett FS Georgia Tech – Burnett simply fills the void left by Rhodes who left for Arizona. Keep in mind, Burnett is a high-risk/high-reward type player. Potentially a bust.
30. Minnesota – Chad Jones FS LSU – Chad Jones is a smart athlete, and solidifies the defensive secondary for Minnesota along with first round pick Patrick Robinson.
31. Indianapolis – Rodger Staffold OT Indiana – Staffold is a highly underrated OT in the draft. He’s not quite first round talent, but very close on some people’s boards. The Colts continue to help their lines.
32. New Orleans – Alex Carrington DE Arkansas St – The Saints partially addressed DE in the offseason, but Carrington will provide depth for a team that needs defensive line help.

There are some interesting picks, I know. I’m sure it won’t turn out just like this, but these would be interesting picks. I could see all of these happening, even though they may not.

And some other prospects that could fit into the second round in some way:
Corey Wooton DE Northwestern – He has the talent to go in the first round, but the lack of 4-3 DE needs drops his chances.
Brandon Spikes LB Florida – Spikes was originally seen as first round talent but ended up slow and out of shape.  He should fall to the late third round.
Brandon LaFell WR LSU – Depending on the type of WR a team is looking for, LaFell could go in the middle of the second round.
Navorro Bowman LB Penn St – I originally had Bowman to the Saints in the first round, but with Witherspoon falling to them, and the lack of a desire for 4-3 OLB’s dropped Bowman very far.
Daryl Washington LB TCU – Washington can play any LB position in a 4-3 or an inside LB in the 3-4 defense.  He’s very versatile on defense, but barely misses the cut.
Eric Norwood LB South Carolina – Norwood is no longer looked at strictly as a 3-4 OLB.  He has dropped weight and added mobility to increase his ability to play OLB in a 4-3.
Mike Johnson OG Alabama – Very few guards get taken in the first two rounds it seems and Johnson drops some because of that.

Boise State 2010 Schedule: Tough Enough?

As all college football fans will tell you, the Boise State Broncos have been evolving into a powerhouse over the past few seasons.

Boise State had burst onto the scene with their win for the ages over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.  They finished their 2006 regular season with an undefeated 12-0 record.

Since the 2006 season, Boise State has a record of 49 wins and only four losses, with only one of those losses coming to a conference opponent (Hawaii, 2007).  Their bowl record over these four seasons is 2-2, with wins over Oklahoma and Texas Christian and losses to East Carolina and Texas Christian.

While some fans say the record speaks for itself, many other fans, including myself have a problem with their overall strength of schedule.  In the past four seasons, the Broncos have scheduled four BCS conference opponents (Oregon State in 2006, Washington in 2007, Oregon in 2008 and 2009).

Of their 47 regular season wins over the past four seasons, 43 of them came over opponents in non-BCS conference, including 35 wins over conference opponents.  Also, four of those wins were over FBS teams.  Is this schedule strong enough to warrant a berth to a BCS game?

It seems like Boise State has heard the ridicule and is taking an extra step to ensure the fans will get what they want.

To open the 2010 season, Boise State will travel FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland to face perennial ACC powerhouse Virginia Tech.  This contest with a national power on a neutral site clearly upgrades their schedule significantly.

Boise State will host Pac-10 contender Oregon State on September 25^th.  This marks the first year of Boise State’s recent dominance in which they have scheduled two BCS opponents in the same season.

The other two non-conference opponents the Broncos have scheduled are a home game against Toledo and a game at Wyoming.  While the game with Toledo is not a “schedule-changer,” Wyoming is a much improved football and will pose a challenge for Boise State.

The conference home schedule for the Broncos will have them hosting Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii and Utah State.  While Fresno State has improved under Pat Hill, their best player, running back Ryan Mathews has moved on to the NFL.  Louisiana Tech, who just lost former head coach Derek Dooley, and Utah State should serve as pushovers for Boise State.  Hawaii is always a coin toss.  Their system could give them a big win, or their lack of defense could cost them the game.  Bottom line, Boise State should win these four games.

The conference road schedule is a little more daunting however.   The Broncos have to travel to San Jose State, New Mexico State, rival Idaho and top 25-caliber Nevada.  Boise State and Idaho have a heated rivalry and Idaho is a much improved team.  Nevada finished last season as the only team in Division-IA football history to have three players with over 1000 rushing yards in a season.  Two of those players, quarterback Colin Kaepernick and running back Vai Taua will be returning for their senior seasons.

Boise State has improved their schedule dramatically by adding Oregon State at home and Virginia Tech, who they will play at a neutral site in Landover, Maryland.  Also, the improvement of other WAC teams, Nevada, Idaho and Fresno State will help there strength of schedule.

While this schedule is still not as tough as those played by BCS conference teams, it is a gigantic step in the right direction.  I would still like to see a third BCS team, but we cannot ask for too much.  Also note, Boise State played in thirteen games last season and could still add one more to this schedule.

But is this still tough enough?  Is this schedule worth a BCS Game?  I would say yes, but barely.  I would still like to see a third BCS team, but we cannot ask for too much.  Finishing this season undefeated would be much more impressive than past years and would warrant another Fiesta Bowl.

Is it National Championship worthy?  To this, I say no.  Boise State is clearly head and shoulders above every other team in their conference, and playing only two BCS conference teams, while BCS teams play at lease seven others each season, is not enough.  An easier path should never be rewarded the same as the more difficult path.

Of course this discussion always leads to the question I ask every time Boise State’s schedule is brought up… When will the Pac-10 just invite them to join?  That would solve all of these problems.

Final 2009 Bowl Projections – SEC

Alabama’s victory over Florida in Saturday night’s SEC Championship essentially determined and locked their postseason games.  Alabama finished 13-0, Florida finished 12-1.

Following the two SEC Championship participants are 9-3 LSU and 8-4 Ole Miss.  LSU, having the next best record is a virtual lock to the Capital One Bowl.  Ole Miss is the only eight-win SEC team and they drop in to the Cotton Bowl.

What makes the SEC’s bowl situation so complex and interesting is the fact that six teams finished with a 7-5 record.  Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Auburn and Arkansas are all mixed into a cauldron of bowl selections.  Each of them is guaranteed a bowl and the SEC has no six-win bowl eligible teams.  Therefore these six teams will fill every remaining spot from the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta to the Papajohns.com Bowl I Birmingham.

Because there are so many teams with equal records, other aspects will be taken into account.  Bowl committees will look at fan base travel, geographical location, local revenue and potential matchups.  Auburn will likely go to the Outback Bowl because their fans travel well and have promised large ticket sales.  Tennessee is expected to play in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl because they are close geographically and should produce high revenue from travelling fans for the city of Atlanta.  The same logic applies for Kentucky playing in the Music City Bowl and Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl.  South Carolina and Georgia seem to have drawn the short straw in this situation.

This is how I see things finally shaking out, with potential opponents:

BCS National Championship – Alabama (vs. Texas)

Sugar Bowl – Florida (vs. Cincinnati)

Capital One Bowl – LSU (vs. Penn State)

Outback Bowl – Auburn (vs. Wisconsin)

Cotton Bowl – Ole Miss (vs. Oklahoma State)

Chick-Fil-A Bowl – Tennessee (vs. Virginia Tech)

Music City Bowl – Kentucky (vs. Clemson)

Liberty Bowl – Arkansas (vs. East Carolina)

Independence Bowl – Georgia (vs. Texas A&M)

Papajohns.com Bowl – South Carolina (vs. Pittsburgh)